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El Niño Winter Snow Outlook

Will Grand Targhee get snow this winter?

Snowier than normal 1of 8 strong El Niños

Median 92% of normal · normal 113.4 in

NOAA Dec–Feb outlookOfficial

Precip
Equal chances
Temp
Above normal 33–39%

Nearby NOAA station, not resort totals.

Compare another place

1957-58: 105.0 in, 93% of normal
1965-66: 84.4 in, 74% of normal
1972-73: 103.0 in, 91% of normal
1982-83: 119.4 in, 105% of normal (Big Three El Niño)
1991-92: 68.7 in, 61% of normal
1997-98: 67.0 in, 59% of normal (Big Three El Niño)
2009-10: No data
2015-16: 111.5 in, 98% of normal (Big Three El Niño)
2023-24: 106.0 in, 93% of normal
  • Above normal
  • At or below
  • Normal
  • No data
  • Big 3 El Niños
NOAA station ALTA 1 NNW

Grand Targhee in short

The numbers in three sentences

NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Grand Targhee: temperature 33–39% chance Above normal; precipitation equal chances.

Among the 8 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 1982-83 (119.4 in, 105% of normal) and the least snowy was 1997-98 (67.0 in, 59% of normal).

In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded 1982-83 (119.4 in, 105% of normal), 1997-98 (67.0 in, 59% of normal), 2015-16 (111.5 in, 98% of normal).

Snow by winter

The chart as a table: inches, % of normal, El Niño peak

Snow in past strong El Niño winters

Winters with above-normal snow

1 of 8

In 1 of 8 strong El Niño winters, Grand Targhee got above-normal snow (median 92% of normal).

Normal: 113.4 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).

Seasonal snowfall at Grand Targhee, WY in strong El Niño winters
Winter% of normal
1957-58105.0 inPeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.8993%
1965-6684.4 inPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.9974%
1972-73103.0 inPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.9791%
1982-83Big 3119.4 inPeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.40105%
1991-9268.7 inPeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.1261%
1997-98Big 367.0 inPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.2859%
2009-10No dataPeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.50—
2015-16Big 3111.5 inPeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.2598%
2023-24106.0 inPeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.4293%

Snowfall from the nearest long-record NOAA station: ALTA 1 NNW (6,440 ft), 6.4 km from the resort. Resort-reported totals may differ.

Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.

NOAA's outlook and El Niño now

Issued Sep 17, 2026 · next Oct 15, 2026

NOAA Dec–Feb outlook

Official
Temperature
33–39% chance Above normal
Precipitation
Equal chances

Equal chances: NOAA sees no strong tilt toward above- or below-normal precipitation here this winter.

Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

El Niño now

NOAA status
El Niño Advisory
RONI, JAS 2026
+1.69 °C
Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
81%

NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance). (NOAA CPC, Oct 8, 2026.)

About this station

ALTA 1 NNW · ACIS 480140
  • Station: ALTA 1 NNW, ACIS id 480140.
  • Resort coordinates from Wikipedia (“Grand Targhee Resort”, accessed 2026-10-05).
  • Nearest long-record NOAA COOP station: ALTA 1 NNW (COOP 480140, 6,440 ft, 6.4 km away; snow record 1909-09-12…2026-09-30).
  • This is a nearby long-term station, not summit or resort-reported snowfall.

How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .

Not a forecast

This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.

Nearby locations

Jackson Hole · Bridger Bowl · Billings · Helena