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El Niño Winter Snow Outlook

Will Helena get snow this winter?

Snowier than normal 4of 8 strong El Niños

Median 97% of normal · normal 37.2 in

NOAA Dec–Feb outlookOfficial

Precip
Below normal 33–39%
Temp
Above normal 40–49%

Compare another place

1957-58: 64.1 in, 172% of normal
1965-66: 32.8 in, 88% of normal
1972-73: 25.1 in, 67% of normal
1982-83: 39.0 in, 105% of normal (Big Three El Niño)
1991-92: 40.0 in, 108% of normal
1997-98: No data (Big Three El Niño)
2009-10: 27.9 in, 75% of normal
2015-16: 15.1 in, 41% of normal (Big Three El Niño)
2023-24: 57.9 in, 156% of normal
  • Above normal
  • At or below
  • Normal
  • No data
  • Big 3 El Niños
NOAA station Helena Area (ThreadEx; current station HELENA AIRPORT ASOS)

Helena in short

The numbers in three sentences

NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Helena: temperature 40–49% chance Above normal; precipitation 33–39% chance Below normal.

Among the 8 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 1957-58 (64.1 in, 172% of normal) and the least snowy was 2015-16 (15.1 in, 41% of normal).

In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded 1982-83 (39.0 in, 105% of normal), no complete data for 1997-98, 2015-16 (15.1 in, 41% of normal).

Snow by winter

The chart as a table: inches, % of normal, El Niño peak

Snow in past strong El Niño winters

Winters with above-normal snow

4 of 8

In 4 of 8 strong El Niño winters, Helena got above-normal snow (median 97% of normal).

Normal: 37.2 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).

Seasonal snowfall at Helena, MT in strong El Niño winters
Winter% of normal
1957-5864.1 inPeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.89172%
1965-6632.8 inPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.9988%
1972-7325.1 inPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.9767%
1982-83Big 339.0 inPeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.40105%
1991-9240.0 inPeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.12108%
1997-98Big 3No dataPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.28—
2009-1027.9 inPeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.5075%
2015-16Big 315.1 inPeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.2541%
2023-2457.9 inPeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.42156%

Snowfall from NOAA station record Helena Area (ThreadEx; current station HELENA AIRPORT ASOS) (HLNthr, 3,865 ft).

Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.

NOAA's outlook and El Niño now

Issued Sep 17, 2026 · next Oct 15, 2026

NOAA Dec–Feb outlook

Official
Temperature
40–49% chance Above normal
Precipitation
33–39% chance Below normal

Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

El Niño now

NOAA status
El Niño Advisory
RONI, JAS 2026
+1.69 °C
Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
81%

NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance). (NOAA CPC, Oct 8, 2026.)

About this station

Helena Area (ThreadEx; current station HELENA AIRPORT ASOS) · ACIS HLNthr
  • Station: Helena Area (ThreadEx; current station HELENA AIRPORT ASOS), ACIS id HLNthr, GHCN USW00024144.
  • Matched by station name.

How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .

Not a forecast

This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.

Nearby locations

Great Falls · Bridger Bowl · Missoula · Billings