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El Niño Winter Snow Outlook

Will Bridger Bowl get snow this winter?

Snowier than normal 2of 8 strong El Niños

Median 99% of normal · normal 91.3 in

NOAA Dec–Feb outlookOfficial

Precip
Below normal 33–39%
Temp
Above normal 40–49%

Nearby NOAA station, not resort totals.

Compare another place

1957-58: No data
1965-66: 74.0 in, 81% of normal
1972-73: 108.5 in, 119% of normal
1982-83: 90.1 in, 99% of normal (Big Three El Niño)
1991-92: 51.4 in, 56% of normal
1997-98: 90.8 in, 99% of normal (Big Three El Niño)
2009-10: 121.0 in, 133% of normal
2015-16: 75.7 in, 83% of normal (Big Three El Niño)
2023-24: 91.7 in, 100% of normal
  • Above normal
  • At or below
  • Normal
  • No data
  • Big 3 El Niños
NOAA station BOZEMAN MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY

Bridger Bowl in short

The numbers in three sentences

NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Bridger Bowl: temperature 40–49% chance Above normal; precipitation 33–39% chance Below normal.

Among the 8 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 2009-10 (121.0 in, 133% of normal) and the least snowy was 1991-92 (51.4 in, 56% of normal).

In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded 1982-83 (90.1 in, 99% of normal), 1997-98 (90.8 in, 99% of normal), 2015-16 (75.7 in, 83% of normal).

Snow by winter

The chart as a table: inches, % of normal, El Niño peak

Snow in past strong El Niño winters

Winters with above-normal snow

2 of 8

In 2 of 8 strong El Niño winters, Bridger Bowl got above-normal snow (median 99% of normal).

Normal: 91.3 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).

Seasonal snowfall at Bridger Bowl, MT in strong El Niño winters
Winter% of normal
1957-58No dataPeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.89—
1965-6674.0 inPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.9981%
1972-73108.5 inPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.97119%
1982-83Big 390.1 inPeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.4099%
1991-9251.4 inPeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.1256%
1997-98Big 390.8 inPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.2899%
2009-10121.0 inPeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.50133%
2015-16Big 375.7 inPeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.2583%
2023-2491.7 inPeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.42100%

Snowfall from the nearest long-record NOAA station: BOZEMAN MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY (4,913 ft), 20.9 km from the resort. Resort-reported totals may differ.

Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.

NOAA's outlook and El Niño now

Issued Sep 17, 2026 · next Oct 15, 2026

NOAA Dec–Feb outlook

Official
Temperature
40–49% chance Above normal
Precipitation
33–39% chance Below normal

Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

El Niño now

NOAA status
El Niño Advisory
RONI, JAS 2026
+1.69 °C
Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
81%

NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance). (NOAA CPC, Oct 8, 2026.)

About this station

BOZEMAN MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY · ACIS 241044
  • Station: BOZEMAN MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY, ACIS id 241044.
  • Resort coordinates from Wikipedia (“Bridger Bowl Ski Area”, accessed 2026-10-05).
  • Nearest long-record NOAA COOP station: BOZEMAN MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY (COOP 241044, 4,913 ft, 20.9 km away; snow record 1892-05-01…2026-10-04).
  • This is a nearby long-term station, not summit or resort-reported snowfall.

How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .

Not a forecast

This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.

Nearby locations

Helena · Billings · Great Falls · Grand Targhee