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El Niño Winter Snow Outlook

Will Purgatory get snow this winter?

Snowier than normal 0of 6 strong El Niños

Median 83% of normal · normal 172.6 in

NOAA Dec–Feb outlookOfficial

Precip
Above normal 33–39%
Temp
Equal chances

Nearby NOAA station, not resort totals.

Compare another place

1957-58: No data
1965-66: 83.0 in, 48% of normal
1972-73: 128.5 in, 74% of normal
1982-83: No data (Big Three El Niño)
1991-92: 131.8 in, 76% of normal
1997-98: 153.0 in, 89% of normal (Big Three El Niño)
2009-10: 164.6 in, 95% of normal
2015-16: 169.6 in, 98% of normal (Big Three El Niño)
2023-24: No data
  • Above normal
  • At or below
  • Normal
  • No data
  • Big 3 El Niños
NOAA station SILVERTON

Purgatory in short

The numbers in three sentences

NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Purgatory: temperature equal chances; precipitation 33–39% chance Above normal.

Among the 6 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 2015-16 (169.6 in, 98% of normal) and the least snowy was 1965-66 (83.0 in, 48% of normal).

In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded no complete data for 1982-83, 1997-98 (153.0 in, 89% of normal), 2015-16 (169.6 in, 98% of normal).

Snow by winter

The chart as a table: inches, % of normal, El Niño peak

Snow in past strong El Niño winters

Winters with above-normal snow

0 of 6

In 0 of 6 strong El Niño winters, Purgatory got above-normal snow (median 83% of normal).

Normal: 172.6 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).

Seasonal snowfall at Purgatory, CO in strong El Niño winters
Winter% of normal
1957-58No dataPeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.89—
1965-6683.0 inPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.9948%
1972-73128.5 inPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.9774%
1982-83Big 3No dataPeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.40—
1991-92131.8 inPeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.1276%
1997-98Big 3153.0 inPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.2889%
2009-10164.6 inPeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.5095%
2015-16Big 3169.6 inPeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.2598%
2023-24No dataPeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.42—

Snowfall from the nearest long-record NOAA station: SILVERTON (9,285 ft), 23.9 km from the resort. Resort-reported totals may differ.

Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.

NOAA's outlook and El Niño now

Issued Sep 17, 2026 · next Oct 15, 2026

NOAA Dec–Feb outlook

Official
Temperature
Equal chances
Precipitation
33–39% chance Above normal

Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

El Niño now

NOAA status
El Niño Advisory
RONI, JAS 2026
+1.69 °C
Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
81%

NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance). (NOAA CPC, Oct 8, 2026.)

About this station

SILVERTON · ACIS 057656
  • Station: SILVERTON, ACIS id 057656.
  • Resort coordinates hand-entered (UNVERIFIED: no Wikipedia coordinates found).
  • Nearest long-record NOAA COOP station: SILVERTON (COOP 057656, 9,285 ft, 23.9 km away; snow record 1899-03-01…2026-04-30).
  • This is a nearby long-term station, not summit or resort-reported snowfall.

How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .

Not a forecast

This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.

Nearby locations

Telluride · Crested Butte · Grand Junction · Aspen Snowmass