Aspen Snowmass in short
The numbers in three sentences
NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Aspen Snowmass: temperature equal chances; precipitation equal chances.
Among the 6 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 1982-83 (211.9 in, 124% of normal) and the least snowy was 1991-92 (134.3 in, 79% of normal).
In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded 1982-83 (211.9 in, 124% of normal), 1997-98 (181.6 in, 106% of normal), 2015-16 (176.5 in, 103% of normal).
Snow by winter
The chart as a table: inches, % of normal, El Niño peak
Snow in past strong El Niño winters
Winters with above-normal snow
5 of 6
In 5 of 6 strong El Niño winters, Aspen Snowmass got above-normal snow (median 104% of normal).
Normal: 170.8 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).
| Winter | % of normal |
|---|---|
| 1957-58No dataPeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.89 | — |
| 1965-66No dataPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.99 | — |
| 1972-73No dataPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.97 | — |
| 1982-83Big 3211.9 inPeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.40 | 124% |
| 1991-92134.3 inPeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.12 | 79% |
| 1997-98Big 3181.6 inPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.28 | 106% |
| 2009-10172.8 inPeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.50 | 101% |
| 2015-16Big 3176.5 inPeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.25 | 103% |
| 2023-24178.9 inPeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.42 | 105% |
Snowfall from the nearest long-record NOAA station: ASPEN 1SW (8,175 ft), 1.7 km from the resort. Resort-reported totals may differ.
Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.
NOAA's outlook and El Niño now
Issued Sep 17, 2026 · next Oct 15, 2026
NOAA Dec–Feb outlook
Official- Temperature
- Equal chances
- Precipitation
- Equal chances
Equal chances: NOAA sees no strong tilt toward above- or below-normal precipitation here this winter.
Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.
El Niño now
- NOAA status
- El Niño Advisory
- RONI, JAS 2026
- +1.69 °C
- Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
- 81%
NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance). (NOAA CPC, Oct 8, 2026.)
About this station
ASPEN 1SW · ACIS 050372
- Station: ASPEN 1SW, ACIS id
050372. - Resort coordinates from Wikipedia (“Aspen Mountain (ski area)”, accessed 2026-10-05).
- Nearest long-record NOAA COOP station: ASPEN 1SW (COOP 050372, 8,175 ft, 1.7 km away; snow record 1980-07-01…2026-08-31).
- This is a nearby long-term station, not summit or resort-reported snowfall.
How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .
Not a forecast
This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.