Toledo in short
The numbers in three sentences
NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Toledo: temperature 50–59% chance Above normal; precipitation equal chances.
Among the 9 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 2009-10 (39.1 in, 105% of normal) and the least snowy was 2023-24 (9.6 in, 26% of normal).
In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded 1982-83 (12.5 in, 33% of normal), 1997-98 (16.0 in, 43% of normal), 2015-16 (26.4 in, 71% of normal).
Snow by winter
The chart as a table: inches, % of normal, El Niño peak
Snow in past strong El Niño winters
Winters with above-normal snow
1 of 9
In 1 of 9 strong El Niño winters, Toledo got above-normal snow (median 61% of normal).
Normal: 37.4 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).
| Winter | % of normal |
|---|---|
| 1957-5822.9 inPeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.89 | 61% |
| 1965-6619.8 inPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.99 | 53% |
| 1972-7331.5 inPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.97 | 84% |
| 1982-83Big 312.5 inPeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.40 | 33% |
| 1991-9230.3 inPeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.12 | 81% |
| 1997-98Big 316.0 inPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.28 | 43% |
| 2009-1039.1 inPeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.50 | 105% |
| 2015-16Big 326.4 inPeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.25 | 71% |
| 2023-249.6 inPeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.42 | 26% |
Snowfall from NOAA station record Toledo Area (ThreadEx; current station TOLEDO EXPRESS AP) (TOLthr, 674 ft).
Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.
NOAA's outlook and El Niño now
Issued Sep 17, 2026 · next Oct 15, 2026
NOAA Dec–Feb outlook
Official- Temperature
- 50–59% chance Above normal
- Precipitation
- Equal chances
Equal chances: NOAA sees no strong tilt toward above- or below-normal precipitation here this winter.
Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.
El Niño now
- NOAA status
- El Niño Advisory
- RONI, JAS 2026
- +1.69 °C
- Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
- 81%
NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance). (NOAA CPC, Oct 8, 2026.)
About this station
Toledo Area (ThreadEx; current station TOLEDO EXPRESS AP) · ACIS TOLthr
- Station: Toledo Area (ThreadEx; current station TOLEDO EXPRESS AP), ACIS id
TOLthr, GHCNUSW00094830. - Matched by station name.
How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .
Not a forecast
This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.