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El Niño Winter Snow Outlook

Will Providence get snow this winter?

Snowier than normal 1of 9 strong El Niños

Median 78% of normal · normal 36.6 in

NOAA Dec–Feb outlookOfficial

Precip
Above normal 40–49%
Temp
Above normal 40–49%

Compare another place

1957-58: 38.9 in, 106% of normal
1965-66: 35.2 in, 96% of normal
1972-73: 11.3 in, 31% of normal
1982-83: 32.4 in, 89% of normal (Big Three El Niño)
1991-92: 22.3 in, 61% of normal
1997-98: 4.7 in, 13% of normal (Big Three El Niño)
2009-10: 31.5 in, 86% of normal
2015-16: 28.7 in, 78% of normal (Big Three El Niño)
2023-24: 18.3 in, 50% of normal
  • Above normal
  • At or below
  • Normal
  • Big 3 El Niños
NOAA station Providence Area (ThreadEx; current station RHODE ISLAND T.F. GREEN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)

Providence in short

The numbers in three sentences

NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Providence: temperature 40–49% chance Above normal; precipitation 40–49% chance Above normal.

Among the 9 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 1957-58 (38.9 in, 106% of normal) and the least snowy was 1997-98 (4.7 in, 13% of normal).

In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded 1982-83 (32.4 in, 89% of normal), 1997-98 (4.7 in, 13% of normal), 2015-16 (28.7 in, 78% of normal).

Snow by winter

The chart as a table: inches, % of normal, El Niño peak

Snow in past strong El Niño winters

Winters with above-normal snow

1 of 9

In 1 of 9 strong El Niño winters, Providence got above-normal snow (median 78% of normal).

Normal: 36.6 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).

Seasonal snowfall at Providence, RI in strong El Niño winters
Winter% of normal
1957-5838.9 inPeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.89106%
1965-6635.2 inPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.9996%
1972-7311.3 inPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.9731%
1982-83Big 332.4 inPeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.4089%
1991-9222.3 inPeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.1261%
1997-98Big 34.7 inPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.2813%
2009-1031.5 inPeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.5086%
2015-16Big 328.7 inPeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.2578%
2023-2418.3 inPeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.4250%

Snowfall from NOAA station record Providence Area (ThreadEx; current station RHODE ISLAND T.F. GREEN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT) (PVDthr, 51 ft).

Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.

NOAA's outlook and El Niño now

Issued Sep 17, 2026 · next Oct 15, 2026

NOAA Dec–Feb outlook

Official
Temperature
40–49% chance Above normal
Precipitation
40–49% chance Above normal

Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

El Niño now

NOAA status
El Niño Advisory
RONI, JAS 2026
+1.69 °C
Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
81%

NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance). (NOAA CPC, Oct 8, 2026.)

About this station

Providence Area (ThreadEx; current station RHODE ISLAND T.F. GREEN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT) · ACIS PVDthr
  • Station: Providence Area (ThreadEx; current station RHODE ISLAND T.F. GREEN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT), ACIS id PVDthr, GHCN USW00014765.
  • Matched by station name.

How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .

Not a forecast

This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.

Nearby locations

Boston · Hartford · Concord · Albany