Madison in short
The numbers in three sentences
NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Madison: temperature 50–59% chance Above normal; precipitation equal chances.
Among the 9 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 1997-98 (53.9 in, 104% of normal) and the least snowy was 1957-58 (21.9 in, 42% of normal).
In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded 1982-83 (41.4 in, 80% of normal), 1997-98 (53.9 in, 104% of normal), 2015-16 (32.7 in, 63% of normal).
Snow by winter
The chart as a table: inches, % of normal, El Niño peak
Snow in past strong El Niño winters
Winters with above-normal snow
1 of 9
In 1 of 9 strong El Niño winters, Madison got above-normal snow (median 82% of normal).
Normal: 51.8 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).
| Winter | % of normal |
|---|---|
| 1957-5821.9 inPeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.89 | 42% |
| 1965-6625.4 inPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.99 | 49% |
| 1972-7344.0 inPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.97 | 85% |
| 1982-83Big 341.4 inPeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.40 | 80% |
| 1991-9242.5 inPeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.12 | 82% |
| 1997-98Big 353.9 inPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.28 | 104% |
| 2009-1051.6 inPeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.50 | 100% |
| 2015-16Big 332.7 inPeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.25 | 63% |
| 2023-2443.3 inPeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.42 | 84% |
Snowfall from NOAA station record Madison Area (ThreadEx; current station MADISON DANE COUNTY REGIONAL AP) (MSNthr, 859 ft).
Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.
NOAA's outlook and El Niño now
Issued Sep 17, 2026 · next Oct 15, 2026
NOAA Dec–Feb outlook
Official- Temperature
- 50–59% chance Above normal
- Precipitation
- Equal chances
Equal chances: NOAA sees no strong tilt toward above- or below-normal precipitation here this winter.
Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.
El Niño now
- NOAA status
- El Niño Advisory
- RONI, JAS 2026
- +1.69 °C
- Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
- 81%
NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance). (NOAA CPC, Oct 8, 2026.)
About this station
Madison Area (ThreadEx; current station MADISON DANE COUNTY REGIONAL AP) · ACIS MSNthr
- Station: Madison Area (ThreadEx; current station MADISON DANE COUNTY REGIONAL AP), ACIS id
MSNthr, GHCNUSW00014837. - Matched by station name.
How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .
Not a forecast
This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.