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El Niño Winter Snow Outlook

Will Louisville get snow this winter?

Snowier than normal 5of 9 strong El Niños

Median 111% of normal · normal 13.4 in

NOAA Dec–Feb outlookOfficial

Precip
Equal chances
Temp
Above normal 40–49%

Compare another place

1957-58: 15.1 in, 113% of normal
1965-66: 20.1 in, 150% of normal
1972-73: 8.5 in, 63% of normal
1982-83: 5.2 in, 39% of normal (Big Three El Niño)
1991-92: 3.2 in, 24% of normal
1997-98: 29.0 in, 216% of normal (Big Three El Niño)
2009-10: 21.3 in, 159% of normal
2015-16: 14.9 in, 111% of normal (Big Three El Niño)
2023-24: 4.6 in, 34% of normal
  • Above normal
  • At or below
  • Normal
  • Big 3 El Niños
NOAA station Louisville Area (ThreadEx; current station LOUISVILLE INTL AP)

Louisville in short

The numbers in three sentences

NOAA's Dec–Feb 2026-27 outlook for Louisville: temperature 40–49% chance Above normal; precipitation equal chances.

Among the 9 strong El Niño winters with complete records, the snowiest here was 1997-98 (29.0 in, 216% of normal) and the least snowy was 1991-92 (3.2 in, 24% of normal).

In the “Big Three” El Niño winters it recorded 1982-83 (5.2 in, 39% of normal), 1997-98 (29.0 in, 216% of normal), 2015-16 (14.9 in, 111% of normal).

Snow by winter

The chart as a table: inches, % of normal, El Niño peak

Snow in past strong El Niño winters

Winters with above-normal snow

5 of 9

In 5 of 9 strong El Niño winters, Louisville got above-normal snow (median 111% of normal).

Normal: 13.4 in per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normal).

Seasonal snowfall at Louisville, KY in strong El Niño winters
Winter% of normal
1957-5815.1 inPeak ONI 1.69 / RONI 1.89113%
1965-6620.1 inPeak ONI 1.82 / RONI 1.99150%
1972-738.5 inPeak ONI 1.84 / RONI 1.9763%
1982-83Big 35.2 inPeak ONI 2.14 / RONI 2.4039%
1991-923.2 inPeak ONI 1.54 / RONI 2.1224%
1997-98Big 329.0 inPeak ONI 2.37 / RONI 2.28216%
2009-1021.3 inPeak ONI 1.50 / RONI 1.50159%
2015-16Big 314.9 inPeak ONI 2.59 / RONI 2.25111%
2023-244.6 inPeak ONI 1.99 / RONI 1.4234%

Snowfall from NOAA station record Louisville Area (ThreadEx; current station LOUISVILLE INTL AP) (SDFthr, 480 ft).

Past strong El Niño winters are a guide, not a forecast. Every El Niño is different: this one comes with a negative PDO, which NOAA says may dampen typical impacts.

NOAA's outlook and El Niño now

Issued Sep 17, 2026 · next Oct 15, 2026

NOAA Dec–Feb outlook

Official
Temperature
40–49% chance Above normal
Precipitation
Equal chances

Equal chances: NOAA sees no strong tilt toward above- or below-normal precipitation here this winter.

Issued Sep 17, 2026 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Next update Oct 15, 2026.

El Niño now

NOAA status
El Niño Advisory
RONI, JAS 2026
+1.69 °C
Chance of very strong (≥ +2.0 °C) in Dec–Feb
81%

NOAA status: El Niño Advisory. El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance). (NOAA CPC, Oct 8, 2026.)

About this station

Louisville Area (ThreadEx; current station LOUISVILLE INTL AP) · ACIS SDFthr
  • Station: Louisville Area (ThreadEx; current station LOUISVILLE INTL AP), ACIS id SDFthr, GHCN USW00093821.
  • Matched by station name.

How we pick stations and count winters: method & sources. Last updated .

Not a forecast

This is not a weather forecast. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center; past El Niño winters show what happened, not what will happen. Snowfall is from NOAA station records (ACIS) and may contain gaps or station changes. For forecasts and warnings, use weather.gov. Not affiliated with NOAA/NWS.

Nearby locations

Lexington · Cincinnati · Indianapolis · Columbus